As sports gambling becomes more mainstream, prop bets on sporting events are becoming more popular. What 1st Round NFL Draft prop bets should you be making?
Sportsbetting.ag has published a full list of prop bets for the NFL Draft.
Which gambles should you take, and which should you avoid, and which bets are just fun to think about in the first round of the NFL Draft on Thursday?
Bets you should take
1) Will a Top 10 pick be traded on Draft Day?
Take the bet: Yes. There isn’t great value here, but it still seems like free money. There seems to be zero percent chance that someone doesn’t trade up for a quarterback, or take a discounted rate to move down. Put up the cash, collect your free money. This one is a no-brainer.
2) No. 1 overall pick hugs his mom first
Take the bet: No. The odds are that Mom is going to be the first, but there are so many people at the table/party that it seems like a good value to take to double-up on your bankroll. Plus, there is a decent chance the pick is known before the draft starts – so the mandatory mom hug may be over by then! Take the bet, and hope the agent sneaks in their first (or significant other, or dad).
3) Nick Bosa selected as a Top 2 pick
Take the bet: No. This is another one that seems unlikely but that there is good value for. There is a good chance that Arizona passes on Kyler Murray. If that happens San Francisco may not be able to pass up on the offers they’ll get from quarterback-needy teams. If Arizona takes Murray, someone trading up for Dwayne Haskins seems just as likely. Do this.
4) Drew Lock selected No. 10 or earlier
Take the bet: Yes. The value differential here is so low that you should take the risk to collect some of the easier money. Is there a chance Lock drops? Yes. But, between Denver general manager John Elway’s infatuation and the premium placed on the quarterback position, I’m taking this one.
5) Dwayne Haskins selected No. 10 or earlier
Take the bet: Yes. Haskins has a much better chance to go in the top 10 than Lock. So, this seems pretty easy to me. Again, not a great value bet, but a chance at easy money. When was the last time there were less than two top 10 quarterbacks?
6) Ed Oliver selected No. 8 or earlier
Take the bet: Yes. Two weeks ago the no would have looked like great value. Now the opposite appears true. Oliver could easily go third to the Jets. If he doesn’t, each of the next five teams could all take Oliver.
7) How many quarterbacks will be selected in Round 1
Over 3.5 (-450)
Under 3.5 (+275)
Take the bet: Over. This is bad value but free money. There is a near-zero chance that the top four do not all go in Round 1. Free money? Yes, please!
8) How many offensive players will be selected in Round 1
Over 15.5 (-120)
Under 15.5 (-120)
Take the bet: Under. Defense is too strong in this draft, there will be 17 or 18 defenders taken in the first round.
9) How many Alabama players will be selected in Round 1
Over 3.5 (+100)
Under 3.5 (-140)
Take the bet: Over. More easy money and it is unfathomable how “no” is the favorite here. Kyler Murray, Josh Jacobs, Jonah Williams, and Quinnen Williams. Why yes, we do like to win free money, thank you!
10) How many Ohio State players will be selected in Round 1
Over 2.5 (-160)
Under 2.5 (+120)
Take the bet: Under. As easy as the Alabama bet is, this one is too. There is not another player in the top 50 after Joey Bosa and Dwayne Haskins, according to Daniel Jeremiah. Maybe Dre’Mont Jones goes at the bottom of round one (Jeremiah’s No. 71, but many others have him in the top 40) – but it seems unlikely. More money!