Seahawks wide receiver Doug Baldwin may miss the entire preseason, but should that automatically drop his fantasy stock?
The news on the knee injury for Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Doug Baldwin has gotten progressively worse in the last day or so. From possibly being sidelined a few weeks, to head coach Pete Carroll suggesting he came to camp “a little bit off” to Adam Schefter and Field Yates of ESPN reporting Wednesday Baldwin may miss the entire preseason.
For a veteran like Baldwin, preseason games are far more risk than reward. His rapport with quarterback Russell Wilson is clear, with a target share between 20.9 and 22.05 percent in each of the last four years. Paul Richardson and Jimmy Graham are leaving behind a combined 31.7 percent of the target share from last year, and Brandon Marshall was the only notable passing game addition, so Baldwin is in line for a bump in targets this year.
Baldwin’s health will be worth monitoring heading into the busiest time for fantasy drafts, and there will be no shortage of updates. But as of right now, he can tentatively be expected to play Week 1.
Even with an average draft position of WR10 in 12-team standard (pick 3.03) and PPR leagues (pick 3.02, via Fantasy Football Calculator), Baldwin could be seen as a solid value. This injury may drop him a few ADP spots in the near-term, but there’s no reason to avoid drafting him right now. If the prognosis gets worse, then a real adjustment in Baldwin’s fantasy outlook for this year will be necessary.
If Baldwin were to miss time during the regular season, Tyler Lockett and Marshall would be in line for more opportunities. Wilson is a fantasy entity all his own, after accounting for about 86 percent of Seattle’s offense last year as well as all but one of the team’s offensive touchdowns, but being without Baldwin for even a game or two wouldn’t be good news for the Seahawks’ signal caller.